The proposed Connecticut Child Tax Credit: Estimating impacts for towns, legislative districts, and households by race and ethnicity

Report by Mark Abraham, Andrew Carr
February 19, 2024

DataHaven   (New Haven - Connecticut)

In partnership with the United Way of Connecticut, DataHaven analyzed Census data to help Connecticut communities understand the potential impact of a proposed Connecticut Child Tax Credit (CT CTC) on local communities. We estimated how the proposed credits would be distributed across different geographic areas and by racial/ethnic group. Residents may find this information helpful when talking with elected officials about economic security, racial equity, and community well-being.

The CT CTC proposal we analyzed would allocate $600 per child annually, for up to three children per filing family. Single-filing families making less $100,000 per year, and joint-filers making less than $200,000 per year, would be eligible to receive the credit. The credit would be fully refundable, meaning that families without tax liability would receive the full value.

From July to December 2021, a Child Tax Credit at the national level provided advance payments to nearly all U.S. families with dependent children (including those previously excluded from eligibility) each month. This credit is widely considered to have had a significant impact, as it led to a large drop in food insecurity among families with children, both nationally as well as in Connecticut. We believe that a CT CTC would have measurable impacts on family economic well-being as well, assuming that it was of sufficient scale and reach.

To create local estimates, DataHaven collected counts of eligible families from the 2018-2022 U.S. Census American Community Survey. These were multiplied by estimates of the average number of eligible children per eligible family to get numbers of eligible children, which were multiplied by the $600 credit and added together to get total refund amounts for local areas including neighborhoods, towns, and legislative districts. More detail on our methodology may be found below.

DataHaven published interactive maps for townsstate house districts, and state senate districts. These maps are also posted on the United Way of Connecticut website.

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